The delay in returning Kendal, Matla and Matimba power stations to service sees South Africa back in an intense loadshedding schedule, with four-hour slots becoming a daily occurrence and most areas coping with nine and a half hours without power every day.
The prospect of Stage 8 loadshedding is now upon us, and sounding the alarm is energy expert Clyde Mallinson. According to an article published today (14 September 2023) in the Daily Investor, contributor Shaun Jacobs observes that we are already teetering on the brink of Stage 7 loadshedding. Mallinson’s predictive load shedding model indicates a shortfall of 8000 MW at current levels, with Eskom’s coal fleet fast approaching just 41 percent capacity, which would put us squarely into Stage 8 should it be reached. Mallinson’s chart (below) predicts levels of maximum shortfall based on coal capacity factors.
It must be noted that although Eskom has never officially exceeded stage 6 loadshedding, in practise they have implemented cuts in the range of stages 7 and 8. The art of shifting announced levels throughout the day goes a long way to concealing this fact.
“Eskom has decided to cap its announcements at stage 6 load-shedding, avoiding announcing stage 8 or higher load-shedding,” observes Mallinson. “They are giving us the impression that everything is oscillating around stage 6, which is a lie. It is beyond stage 6 when considering the frequency of power cuts.”
The sheer scale of Eksom’s maintenance and repair backlog is such that the medium-term prospects of achieving sufficient capacity to deliver electricity at sustainable levels can only be achieved in partnership with private sector renewable investments and reasonable power purchase agreements. The demand on electricity installation expertise is set to keep growing and significantly exceed current skills levels available in the country.
